Hannah Sue Hollberg Means Business
Business Ben and Hannah Sue Hollberg delivered the fastest round of the day and sit as the overnight leader with a rail in hand on Ema Klugman. They are the Prediction Center favourite with a 56% win chance.
The first qualifier of the US Equestrian Open is heating up, with Hannah Sue Hollberg taking over the lead after an impressive cross-country round aboard Business Ben. The 14-year-old Thoroughbred gelding, previously campaigned by Allison Springer, has been steadily building a partnership with Hannah Sue behind-the-scenes, and today, they pressed the button. They delivered the fastest round of the day (4.4 penalties) and sit as the overnight leader with a rail in hand on Ema Klugman. They are the Prediction Center favourite with a 56% win chance.
The Current Standings: Top 5 Riders Going Into Show Jumping
Hannah Sue’s lead gives her some breathing room, but the final phase at Morven, after a real speed and stamina test today, is no walk in the park. Ema Klugman and RF Redfern are sitting in second with a score of 42.9, followed closely by Emily Mastervich Beshear with Rio De Janeiro, Erin Kanara with Charmed Victory and Arden Wildasin with Billy Beaufort . The win feels like it's between the top two but the valuable series points for high placings are wide open.
Updated Win Chances for the Top 5 Riders
With just the show jumping phase left, EquiRatings’ predictive models have recalculated the win chances for the top five combinations. We call it Prediction Center - a statistical model that forecasts the results of major eventing competitions before and during the event. It simulates the competition 10,000 times, and updates its projected leaderboard. That means, based on the records of all of these horses, their experience at the level, their current score etc. If we ran this competition 10,000 times, Hannah Sue wins 56% of the time and Ema wins 36% of the time. That doesn’t leave much room for the others. Can it happen that it’s Emily Mastervich Beshear? Of course. It’s about a one-in-fourteen chance.
- Hannah Sue Hollberg and Business Ben – [56% Win, 85% Podium]
There are some big unknowns here. We do know Hannah Sue is a great show jumper – she has a 43% clear rate at this level from over 60 runs – way above the average. We do know that the last time Business Ben jumped clear in the stadium jumping was back in 2020. What we don’t know is what Hannah Sue has been doing behind the scenes. They have focused a huge amount of their training in this phase and they can afford at least one to take the win.
Verdict: One down and a win. - Ema Klugman and RF Redfern – [36% Win, 93% Podium]
Ema and RF Redfern are great jumpers. They arrive here off the back of a clear round (and a win) in the CCI3*S at Plantation Field. They have knocked just three rails in the last 8 international rounds. Worth noting that they had a rail in both their CCI4*-S rounds.
Verdict: Clear to keep the pressure on - Emily Mastervich Beshear and Rio De Janeiro– [7% Win, 81% Podium]
This is another super stadium jumper, only knocking one rail in five internationals in 2024. They jumped clear last time out at Aiken at this level – with all of their other clears coming at 3* level, both with Emily and Nicholas.
Verdict: Clear to keep the podium finish - Erin Kanara and Charmed Victory– [21% Podium]
Today was a big day for Charmed Victory and they delivered in style. The Stadium Jumping is a more challenging phase for them – they have had two down in three of their last four internationals. If they can keep it to single rail, it will be a good result.
- Arden Wildasin and Billy Beaufort– [14% Podium]
This pair are still getting to know each other so it’s hard to call. They have two internationals together, both at CCI3*-S where were clear last time (Aiken) and two down in Maryland.
Points on Offer: What’s at Stake?
The US Equestrian Open has prize money ($50k) for series points – in addition to the final here at Morven next year. Tomorrow is the first chance to collect valuable points.
Final Day Expectations
With just one phase left to determine the winner, all eyes are on the show jumping course. Last season was one of the lowest ever clear rates (just two clear rounds from 16, 13%). It was the first time the show jumping ran after the cross-country – possibly an angle on tomorrow!
Tune in to USEF Network to see if Hannah Sue Hollberg can hold onto her lead, or if the two excellent jumpers behind her can catch her.
We will be running a full review and podcast too. Enjoy the Morven finale, and the start of the series.
Stay Connected
Stay up to date with news and standings of the US Equestrian Open Series on Facebook and Instagram. Follow US Equestrian on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter. Use #USEquestrianOpen.
Get the live Morven Park 4*-S results here and be in the know by the fan guide.
For media inquiries about the US Equestrian Open Series, please contact Carly Weilminster at cweilminster@usef.org . For sponsorship opportunities, contact Layson Griffin at lgriffin@usef.org.
