The January CDI3* at Ocala&rsquo;s World Equestrian Center is perhaps not the flashiest stop on the Open calendar, but it has consistently appeared in the early-season plans of riders who go on to have meaningful years. It is also a venue the Series returns to often. This is the seventh Open qualifier held in Ocala across the 2025 and 2026 seasons, making it one of the most frequently used sites in the Series. Only Wellington appears more often.
This year&rsquo;s January competition draws just four combinations, which limits the points on offer. With fewer than five starters, the winner will earn 15 Open points, reflecting the Series&rsquo; lowest points allocation system.&nbsp;
<h2 dir="ltr">A Proven Venue for Strong Seasons</h2>
Recent seasons have shown a clear pattern at this venue: riders who score well here tend to build from it. Last year&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/gallagher-and-eckroth-deliver-career-best-rides-at-qualifier-five" target="_blank" rel="noopener">January CDI3* </a>&nbsp;was won by Denielle Gallagher, who returned <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/us-open-of-dressage-a-three-way-tie-at-the-top" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two weeks later and won again</a>. Those results formed a substantial portion of her early-season scoring and contributed to a ninth-place finish on the 2025 Open leaderboard.
The venue has also featured prominently in campaigns that reached the top of the standings. Benjamin Ebeling and Bellena <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/bellena-dances-to-victory-but-the-leaderboard-holds-its-breath" target="_blank" rel="noopener">won two Open legs here in 2025</a>, using Ocala as an early scoring base before expanding their schedule elsewhere. More recently, Christian Simonson and Indian Rock won the <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/simonson-and-indian-rock-start-2026-on-top" target="_blank" rel="noopener">December CDI</a> at this venue, a result that counted toward the current season and marked the first stop on Simonson&rsquo;s World Cup Final qualification run.
<h2 dir="ltr">A Statistical Favorite in a Close Field</h2>
Claire Darnell and Harrold S enter the weekend with the strongest statistical profile in the field. The pair has four freestyle starts, averaging 73.569 percent, with a personal best of 77.015. That high score was earned in a class that included Steffen Peters and Anna Buffini, both of whom went on to score over 80 percent, placing Darnell third in what was, at the time, a top-end domestic field.
While that personal best stands well above the rest of this group, Darnell&rsquo;s average score places her closer to the pack than the headline number alone suggests. She arrives as the most proven combination, but not one insulated from pressure if others deliver clean tests.
<iframe id="datawrapper-chart-q0M6R" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" title="Grand Prix Freestyle Stats: WEC - Ocala January CDI3*" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/q0M6R/1/" height="459" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" aria-label="Table" data-external="1"></iframe>
Behind her, the remaining three combinations are closely grouped on paper. Charlotte Osborne and Fr&uuml;hlingszauber, Jodie Kelly-Baxley with Grayton Beach, and Sylvia Gugler aboard Vulkano 14 all carry freestyle averages within roughly two points of one another. Osborne and Gugler will each be contesting only their second FEI freestyle with their current mounts.
In a four-horse field, any personal best from that trio would likely secure a podium finish, and a particularly clean test could challenge for the win.
<h2 dir="ltr">Tune In</h2>
The freestyle takes place Saturday, January 31 at 7:40 p.m. ET. Catch the action live on <a href="https://www.clipmyhorse.tv/en_US/events/18395/cdi3-wec-january-dressage-presented-by-hampton-green-farms">USEF Network</a>, and <a href="https://www.usef.org/membership/join-renew">sign up for free</a> as a fan to stream the action.
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A dressage rider in a navy tailcoat and white breeches rides a dark horse in collected work, shown from behind, with US Equestrian Open Dressage branding overlaid.

Claire Darnell Enters as Favorite at WEC Ocala CDI3*

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For more than a decade, EquiRatings metrics have been flagging future 5* and championship horses while they were still competing at 3*. And the latest numbers suggest the biggest future players in the US Equestrian Open aren&rsquo;t coming from nowhere, they&rsquo;ve been hiding in plain sight all along.
<h3>1. HPR</h3>
Think of the High Performance Rating (HPR) as the metric that measures individual brilliance. It answers one specific question: &ldquo;How impressive was that particular ride?&rdquo; Traditional scoring only tells you who finished first, but the HPR strips away the "noise" to reveal the true quality of a performance.&nbsp;
Unlike a standard penalty score, HPR accounts for variables that raw results miss. It weighs field strength, course difficulty, winning margins, and even the judging. Because of this, a horse finishing fifth in an Olympic-caliber class can earn a higher HPR than a win at a weak local event.
<h3 dir="ltr" role="presentation">2. Elo</h3>
If HPR is the stopwatch that catches a spike in brilliance, Elo is the market. It measures long-term consistency over a horse's entire career.
The system is self-correcting and works like a points exchange. You gain significant points for beating a high-rated opponent and you lose more for underperforming against a weaker field. Over time, the rating converges on the horse's true competitive level and long-term consistency.
While HPR isolates a single moment of greatness, Elo reveals who is consistent, world-class competitor.
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To test whether the data really does spot greatness early, we analyzed HPR and Elo scores from US horses aged 7-10 competing at the three-star level across three snapshots in time: roughly 10 years ago, five years ago, and today.
<h2>The Proof: 2014-2016</h2>
<h3 dir="ltr">The "Time Machine" View</h3>
RF Scandalous recorded a 92 HPR in the CCI3*-L at Ocala in 2015 while still an emerging name. That performance with Marilyn Little foreshadowed both team and individual gold at the Pan American Games later the same year, followed by top-five finishes at Luhm&uuml;hlen 5* (2017) and Kentucky 5* (2018).
Matching that number was Mai Baum (Tamie Smith), who logged a 92 HPR at Jersey Fresh&rsquo;s CCI3*-S. Long before his landmark Kentucky 5* victory, the data already marked him as exceptional. He would go on to become the first US winner of Kentucky in 15 years and the highest-rated US horse ever recorded on the EquiRatings Elo.
Fernhill Fugitive, ridden by Phillip Dutton, recorded one of the highest Elo ratings in this cohort during the period - a level of consistency that later translated into two top-ten finishes at the Kentucky 5*. Copper Beach also stood out on Elo at just nine years old under Buck Davidson. After a series of top-level wins, he went on to partner rising star Cosby Green through her first five-star appearances.
Even beyond the headline names, the pattern holds. Elite 3* HPRs (90+) and high Elo&rsquo;s correlate strongly with big 5* performances, championship appearances, and Hall of Fame careers.&nbsp;
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<h2 dir="ltr">The Validation: 2018-2021</h2>
<h3 dir="ltr">The Current Titans</h3>
Fast-forward five years and the picture sharpens. The data highlights many familiar names&mdash; Chin Tonic HS, FE Lifestyle, Jump Jet, Cooley Quicksilver&mdash;two recent contenders at the US Equestrian Open Final stood out.
As a 3* horse, Miks Master C&nbsp; topped the list with the highest-rated performance of this group with a 97 HPR at Maryland's CCI3*-S. At the time, he was piloted by Maya Black, then being produced by Liz Halliday all the way to a 3rd place at Kentucky 5* before Boyd Martin took the ride and won the inaugural US Equestrian Open Final.
The Elo also identified&nbsp;Off The Record early. He sat near the top of this cohort&rsquo;s Elo table thanks to a string of high‑placing runs for Will Coleman. This combination then went on to a string of impressive results but most notable an Aachen victory, a World Championship team silver medal and most recently, a 2nd place finish at the US Equestrian Open&nbsp;
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<h2 dir="ltr">The Prediction: 2024-2025</h2>
<h3 dir="ltr">The Future of the US Equestrian Open</h3>
Turn to the present.
<h3 dir="ltr">Highest Rated Performances (HPR)</h3>
Conner, ridden by Isabelle Bosley, leads the pack with a massive 96 HPR at the 2025 Maryland CCI3*-L. This performance line puts the 8-year-old in the same rarified air as past legends at this level.
The &ldquo;90+ Club&rdquo; also includes performances from names like Rockett 19 and Alyssa Phillips, Shanroe Cooley with Boyd Martin, and Jaguars Duende ridden by Sharon White.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/4374c84f-c313-4f65-a387-b03a7ff8462a.png?width=1704&amp;height=1234" alt="S Bt3 O the Highest Rated Performances From 7 to 10 Year Olds at Cci3 2024 Amp 2025 ">
<h3 dir="ltr">Highest Elo Ratings</h3>
While HPR measures single-event brilliance, the EquiRatings Elo tracks cumulative strength, which of course favours older horses rather than younger. Jaguars Duende (Sharon White) currently tops the leaderboard for 7 to 10-year-olds, followed closely by Tamie Smith&rsquo;s Lillet 3.&nbsp;
Fernhill Bertus is the only 8-year-old to feature - an impressive achievement given he has to rank ahead of older horses who&rsquo;ve had far more opportunities to build Elo points. He&rsquo;s been remarkably consistent, never recording an international jumping penalty in either show jumping or cross-country, and capped his season with a top-10 finish at Maryland&rsquo;s CCI3*-L. It&rsquo;s a combination firmly worth watching as the years progress.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/51801cb1-ea73-4cd6-800d-d70f601edb9a.png?width=1520&amp;height=890" alt="Jbrad the Highest Rated Us 7 to 10 Year Olds Based on the Equiratings Elo ">
Looking across a decade of data, the pattern is consistent: when US 7- to 10-year-olds post HPRs in the 90+ range or carry high Elo ratings, they go on to the sport&rsquo;s biggest stages. On that basis, the future US Equestrian Open winners could come from any of the horses listed above.
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For more on the future stars of the US Equestrian Open, listen to the latest podcast episode!
<iframe style="border: none;" title="Embed Player" src="https://play.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/39904235/height/192/theme/modern/size/large/thumbnail/yes/custom-color/28427a/time-start/00:00:00/hide-playlist/yes/download/yes/font-color/ffffff" width="100%" height="192" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>
Read this week's Open Weekly article <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/the-open-weekly-results-and-early-signals-from-the-winter-circuits" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here.</a>
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<h2 dir="ltr">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 dir="ltr">Follow the US Equestrian Open of Eventing</h2>
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For Sport Department questions, please contact Christy Hawkins at&nbsp;<a href="mailto:USEquestrianOpen@usef.org">USEquestrianOpen@usef.org</a>.
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The Crystal Ball: How Data Predicts the Next Generation of US Superstars

The Open Weekly: Results and Early Signals from the Winter Circuits

The Wellington CDI5* qualifier is a notable date on the North American Dressage calendar. Outside of the newly created <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/dressage-us-equestrian-open-quick-guide">US Equestrian Open of Dressage Final</a>, it remains the only CDI5* held in the region&mdash;a status it has carried since the Global Dressage Festival launched in 2009. This year&rsquo;s edition draws an internationally experienced freestyle field, with six Olympians contesting Thursday&rsquo;s Grand Prix to qualify for either the Special or the Freestyle later in the weekend.
With none of the current top three on the Open leaderboard entered, the points picture focuses squarely on opportunity through the middle of the field. Riders sitting between fourth and fifteenth have ample room to shuffle positions.
<iframe id="datawrapper-chart-ZIIjN" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" title="Grand Prix Freestyle Stats: AGDF 3" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZIIjN/1/" height="693" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" aria-label="Table" data-external="1"></iframe>
<h2 dir="ltr">Susan Pape and a Statistical Edge</h2>
On paper, Great Britain&rsquo;s Susan Pape arrives with the strongest freestyle numbers in the field. Pape and Harmony&rsquo;s Giulilanta have contested just two FEI Grand Prix Freestyles together, producing an average of 79.048% and a personal best of 79.805%.
The limited sample size is worth noting, but those scores still stand apart from the rest of the field. If Pape delivers something close to her established range, she positions herself clearly at the top of the class. This weekend also marks the first appearance by a British rider in the US Equestrian Open of Dressage, adding a new flag to the Series.
<h2 dir="ltr">Anna Marek Returns to the Freestyle Ring</h2>
Anna Marek returns to the freestyle ring for the first time this season with Fayvel. Their last freestyle appearance came at the Open Final last year, where they finished third on a 77.830%, behind Felicitas Hendricks and <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/ben-and-bellena-save-their-best-for-last">Ben Ebeling</a>.
Their FEI freestyle average currently sits at 75.966%, with a personal best of 78.995%. Those numbers keep them firmly in podium range, particularly in a field without the Open&rsquo;s current leaders. The primary question this week is simply how quickly they settle back into freestyle competition after a break from the test.
<h2 dir="ltr">Caroline Darcourt and the Mid-70s Conversation</h2>
Caroline Darcourt and Lord Django sit just behind Marek on paper, but their numbers reinforce how tight that grouping is. Their freestyle average of 75.333% trails Fayvel&rsquo;s by a narrow margin, and their personal best of 78.170% sits just below Marek&rsquo;s top score.
They were last seen at <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/qualifier-3-preview-get-used-to-hearing-about-indian-rock">AGDF 1</a>, finishing fourth on a 75.695%. That score aligns closely with their established range and reflects the kind of consistent mid-70s performance that often keeps the combination competitive when others make mistakes.
<h2 dir="ltr">Frederic Wandres with Championship Credentials&nbsp;</h2>
Frederic Wandres enters the freestyle with significant championship credentials despite piloting a mount with some of the least amount of experience. Verrenberg, the nine-year-old Oldenburg gelding, has only two FEI Grand Prix Freestyles to his name, but he is ridden by a member of Germany&rsquo;s 2024 Olympic gold medal team.&nbsp;
The pair arrive off a strong showing at last week&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/down-the-road-from-wellington">Gold Coast Opener</a>, where Wandres won the Grand Prix on a 71.326% and returned the following day to win the Grand Prix Special on a higher 72.298%. Scoring higher in the Special than the Grand Prix is notable and points to the technical accuracy we&rsquo;ve come to expect from the Germans. In theory, that should translate well to the freestyle that builds upon a strong technical base with artistry and musicality.&nbsp;
<h2 dir="ltr">Experience Lower Down the Order</h2>
Ashley Holzer and Hawtins San Floriana round out the group of realistic contenders. The mare has steadily improved her freestyle marks, most recently earning a personal best of 75.010% at AGDF 1, placing them squarely within the mid-70s range occupied by several podium threats.
Holzer, a three-time Olympian, joins fellow Canadian Olympian Chris von Martels in adding depth and experience to Friday&rsquo;s freestyle lineup.
<h2 dir="ltr">What to Watch</h2>
Friday&rsquo;s freestyle brings together a mix of proven international riders and developing freestyle partnerships in a prestigious CDI5* setting. Catch the action live on <a href="https://www.clipmyhorse.tv/en_US/events/18391/adequan-global-dressage-festival-iii">USEF Network</a> starting at 7:15 p.m. ET. <a href="https://www.usef.org/membership/join-renew">Sign up for free</a> as a fan to stream the action.
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Close-up of a dressage horse wearing a crystal-trimmed ear bonnet during competition

Wellington CDI5* Draws International Freestyle Field

The achievement acknowledges a year in which Martin demonstrated remarkable consistency across the sport's biggest stages. Among his seven international wins throughout 2025, Martin <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/mikki-dora-and-six-boyd-will-and-caroline-three-exciting-partnerships-from-the-us-equestrian-open-eventing-final" target="_blank" rel="noopener">claimed victory in the inaugural US Equestrian Eventing Open Final</a> at Morven Park aboard Miks Master C.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/dafa659e-8368-4605-9714-ddddb542436a.jpg?width=1016&amp;height=1366" alt="Boyd Martin League 290">
Martin recorded a total of 24 top-five FEI finishes with 11 different horses during the season. This included three podium places at five-star. Cooley Nutcracker was third at Pau. Commando 3 was second at Kentucky and third at Maryland. Commando 3 proved to be a very reliable player throughout the year, clocking multiple podium finishes. These results include a win at an early US Open qualifier at Stable View, contributing points to the series leaderboard, ultimately concluding with Martin <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/DPjJS4kDKxX/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&amp;igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==" target="_blank" rel="noopener">winning the overall series,</a> as well as the final event.
<a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/DPjJS4kDKxX/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&amp;igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/64afa3c8-e29a-466b-a9c7-301d62573412.png?width=1022&amp;height=926" alt="Blog Cover Boyd Martin (1)"></a>
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Boyd Martin grew up in Australia to an Australian father and an American mother. In his acceptance speech at the Pegasus Awards on Thursday night, he recalled when his parents brought him to get his American passport as a child: &ldquo;At the time I thought, &lsquo;why the heck would I ever need an American passport&rsquo;... little did I know that that decision would ultimately change my life&rdquo;.
As a young rider, Martin made the move across the world from Australia to America. He said in his speech: &ldquo;I always wondered how I'd compare to the best in the world&rdquo;. 
This year, he proved that he&nbsp;is the best in the world. A defining moment of Boyd Martin&rsquo;s phenomenal 2025 season came at the beginning of May, when he became the first American eventing athlete to hold the No. 1 spot at the top of the FEI World Rankings in 21 years. He finished the year ranked globally as No. 2 with 537 points and will surely be fighting to get back on top in 2026.
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Martin has been an important member of the Defender US Eventing Team for many years. In 2025, he helped them to earn their third consecutive podium place at CHIO Aachen. Aachen is set to host the World Championships in 2026. Team USA will be eying up that gold medal, having taken home the silver at last World Championships in Pratoni in 2022.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/f74880b9-1269-4a4f-a18c-2770ae816486.jpg?width=5518&amp;height=4059" alt="2026 Iw Annual Meeting 135">
Speaking on his representing America, Martin said, &ldquo;In 2010, I was faced with one of the hardest decisions of my life and it was to change my nationality to represent America. I soon realized when I got to America that this is my home. I also wanted to support the country that was supporting my career. I also felt it was wrong for the owners that had poured so much support into me, being a rider with a different flag. It was the greatest decision I ever made&rdquo;.
Boyd Martin is a proud representative of America and a worthy recipient of the International Equestrian of the Year award. We look forward to seeing him contest the US Equestrian Open Series in 2026.
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Hear from Boyd Martin on winning the 2025 Series of US Equestrian Open of Eventing on The US Equestrian Open Podcast.
<iframe style="border: none;" title="Embed Player" src="https://play.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/38467250/height/192/theme/modern/size/large/thumbnail/yes/custom-color/4c414c/time-start/00:00:00/hide-playlist/yes/download/yes/font-color/ffffff" width="100%" height="192" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>
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<h2 dir="ltr">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 dir="ltr">Follow the US Equestrian Open of Eventing</h2>
Check out the full Series calendar below and stay connected with the latest news and standings on<a href="https://www.facebook.com/usequestrianopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&nbsp;Facebook</a>&nbsp;and<a href="https://www.instagram.com/usequestrianopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&nbsp;Instagram.&nbsp;</a>Use #USEqOpen to join the conversation.
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For Sport Department questions, please contact Christy Hawkins at&nbsp;<a href="mailto:USEquestrianOpen@usef.org">USEquestrianOpen@usef.org</a>.
For media inquiries about the US Equestrian Open Series, please contact Carly Weilminster at&nbsp;<a href="mailto:cweilminster@usef.org">cweilminster@usef.org</a>.&nbsp;
For sponsorship opportunities, contact Layson Griffin at&nbsp;<a href="mailto:lgriffin@usef.org">lgriffin@usef.org</a>.

Claire Darnell Enters as Favorite at WEC Ocala CDI3*

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Claire Darnell Enters as Favorite at WEC Ocala CDI3*

The Crystal Ball: How Data Predicts the Next Generation of US Superstars

The Open Weekly: Results and Early Signals from the Winter Circuits

Wellington CDI5* Draws International Freestyle Field

Boyd Martin: USEF International Equestrian of the Year

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